BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Great Basin has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-19%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
205Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Great Basin is projected to rise about 120% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+120%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Great Basin is projected to rise about 120% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.014.6
20272.30.004.6
20282.30.004.6
20292.30.004.6
20302.30.004.6

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OrdnanceOREGON1361973
BlyOREGON1291994
GardnervilleNEVADA702006
MaldenWASHINGTON622024
Toiyabe NfNEVADA542024
Ewan 2WASHINGTON522024
PromontoryUTAH502010
HarwoodWASHINGTON471997
Glenns FerryIDAHO321986
PendletonOREGON312025
Walla WallaWASHINGTON301993
HartlineWASHINGTON282006
BakerIDAHO242024
Cedar HillIDAHO202024
RanchograndeNEVADA202024
Hanford SiteWASHINGTON201996
SelahWASHINGTON192014
Calico SprNEVADA181974
MesaWASHINGTON182008
PomonaWASHINGTON181999
YakimaWASHINGTON142023
TriangleIDAHO122021
HikoNEVADA122025
PomeroyWASHINGTON122024
Horn RapidsWASHINGTON122015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.