BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-58%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.610.001.4
20260.580.001.4
20270.560.001.4
20280.530.001.3
20290.510.001.3

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sandy RiverOREGON252004
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA222019
Fish RockCALIFORNIA122014
Secret ValOREGON112022
KorbelCALIFORNIA102021
HyderALASKA92007
Martins FyCALIFORNIA82006
OrleansCALIFORNIA82012
CougarWASHINGTON82023
LongvaleCALIFORNIA72023
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA72007
OzetteWASHINGTON62024
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA52017
WedderburnOREGON52019
SalemOREGON52015
South ElmaWASHINGTON52024
Orleans 2CALIFORNIA42014
Port AngelesWASHINGTON42024
TaholahWASHINGTON42022
Pe EllWASHINGTON42012
RainierWASHINGTON42005
HolmesCALIFORNIA32022
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA32012
TimberOREGON31989
AdairOREGON31981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.