BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-56%Since 1970
20Routes In Region
40Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has fallen sharply in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 659% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±468.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+659%Change by 2029
1.3Projected 2029 index
0.00–7.295% range
±468.2%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.30.007.3
20261.30.007.3
20271.30.007.3
20281.30.007.2
20291.30.007.2

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
ZapataTEXAS311987
Pedro CreekTEXAS72005
George WestTEXAS61974
CatarinaTEXAS61975
El IndioTEXAS42000
SejitaTEXAS42015
LaredoTEXAS42018
La PryorTEXAS32010
Agua NuevaTEXAS22014
KingsvilleTEXAS22024
Mirando CityTEXAS22014
HondoTEXAS22003
GuerraTEXAS22010
ProgresoTEXAS22008
RachalTEXAS12023
RandadoTEXAS12013
RaymondvilleTEXAS11994
Encinal 2TEXAS12023
MillettTEXAS11998
HeidelbergTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.