BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-68%Since 1977
33Routes In Region
39Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±167.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029
0.15Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.8695% range
±167.8%Backtest error
19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.210.000.93
20260.190.000.91
20270.180.000.90
20280.160.000.88
20290.150.000.86

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert.
Black GapTEXAS122019
RoswellNEW-MEXICO72023
OzonaTEXAS72014
Red RockNEW-MEXICO52022
PinonNEW-MEXICO32024
Devils R CynTEXAS32011
CanutilloTEXAS32024
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO21977
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO22008
MesillaNEW-MEXICO22000
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO22004
PresidioTEXAS22006
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS22009
GageNEW-MEXICO12009
DemingNEW-MEXICO11974
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12014
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12011
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12011
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12018
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12022
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12006
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12007
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO12024
ComstockTEXAS12022
Hot SpringsTEXAS12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.