BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Piedmont has surged: up 151% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+151%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Piedmont: up 151% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.13.2
20272.21.23.3
20282.21.23.3
20292.21.23.3
20302.31.23.3

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Curry HillGEORGIA652019
Barton CreekSOUTH-CAROLINA302022
WedoweeALABAMA282023
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA272025
CampobelloSOUTH-CAROLINA252025
BowdonGEORGIA172025
Kite LakeGEORGIA172025
WhitmireSOUTH-CAROLINA142024
HebronGEORGIA132022
SiloamNORTH-CAROLINA132017
JoannaSOUTH-CAROLINA132023
CrestGEORGIA122022
HiramGEORGIA122018
StockbridgeGEORGIA102025
Bachman MillMARYLAND92024
MadonnaMARYLAND82022
Little MtnSOUTH-CAROLINA81988
FinchleyVIRGINIA82015
Nixburg 2ALABAMA72022
Holly SprsGEORGIA71999
Stoney Point 2GEORGIA72021
JordanNORTH-CAROLINA72022
FairplayGEORGIA61985
RutledgeGEORGIA62025
WhitesburgGEORGIA62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.