BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Piedmont has surged: up 198% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+198%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Piedmont: up 198% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.13.2
20262.21.13.3
20272.21.23.3
20282.21.23.3
20292.31.23.3

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Curry HillGEORGIA652019
Barton CreekSOUTH-CAROLINA302022
WedoweeALABAMA282023
RutledgeGEORGIA252024
CampobelloSOUTH-CAROLINA252024
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA242024
Kite LakeGEORGIA152023
Brick TavernPENNSYLVANIA152024
WhitmireSOUTH-CAROLINA142024
HebronGEORGIA132022
SiloamNORTH-CAROLINA132017
JoannaSOUTH-CAROLINA132023
CrestGEORGIA122022
HiramGEORGIA122018
CopelandNORTH-CAROLINA122024
Bachman MillMARYLAND92024
MadonnaMARYLAND82022
Little MtnSOUTH-CAROLINA81988
FinchleyVIRGINIA82015
Nixburg 2ALABAMA72022
Holly SprsGEORGIA71999
Stoney Point 2GEORGIA72021
JordanNORTH-CAROLINA72022
FairplayGEORGIA61985
Yates CrossroadsGEORGIA62016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.