BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Appalachian Mountains has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
362Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 98% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+98%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±93.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 98% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.60.008.7
20272.70.008.8
20282.70.008.8
20292.70.008.8
20302.70.008.8

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PhelpsKENTUCKY381997
Pleasant HillGEORGIA302024
Smyer LakeALABAMA252025
SturgillsNORTH-CAROLINA182025
LakeviewALABAMA172024
DrummondALABAMA162024
CentervilleNEW-YORK162013
CoshoctonOHIO161990
KymulgaALABAMA142025
CartersvilleGEORGIA142024
Pine GroveALABAMA132025
RiversideALABAMA132013
WilliamsportMARYLAND132025
OmegaOHIO122024
TalladegaALABAMA102025
OakmanGEORGIA102022
Jonas RidgeNORTH-CAROLINA101971
JasperTENNESSEE102025
McfarlandTENNESSEE101993
GhentWEST-VIRGINIA102025
Pippa PassesKENTUCKY91997
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA92021
GreensportALABAMA82025
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA82022
PortersvillePENNSYLVANIA81988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.