BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Appalachian Mountains has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
362Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.70.008.8
20262.70.008.9
20272.70.008.9
20282.80.008.9
20292.80.008.9

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine GroveALABAMA682024
Smyer LakeALABAMA602024
PhelpsKENTUCKY381997
Pleasant HillGEORGIA302024
LakeviewALABAMA172024
DrummondALABAMA162024
CentervilleNEW-YORK162013
CoshoctonOHIO161990
HanoverWEST-VIRGINIA152024
CartersvilleGEORGIA142024
RiversideALABAMA132013
DrydenVIRGINIA132005
OmegaOHIO122024
BeaverPENNSYLVANIA122024
Mohican S.F.OHIO112024
OakmanGEORGIA102022
Jonas RidgeNORTH-CAROLINA101971
McfarlandTENNESSEE101993
Pippa PassesKENTUCKY91997
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA92022
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA92021
HubbardstownWEST-VIRGINIA92023
WilliamsportMARYLAND82024
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA82022
PortersvillePENNSYLVANIA81988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.