BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

18×Since 1969
58Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2029
6.2Projected 2029 index
0.00–1395% range
±51.9%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20255.90.0013
20266.00.0013
20276.10.0013
20286.10.0013
20296.20.0013

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
DeventerMISSOURI2222024
WilsonARKANSAS1652024
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI1152016
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI1102023
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI642022
ShawLOUISIANA382024
IsolaMISSISSIPPI332022
KeystoneLOUISIANA312004
MaynardARKANSAS262024
EnglandARKANSAS262024
PawpawTENNESSEE112009
FrogmoreLOUISIANA102024
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA102022
DundeeMISSISSIPPI102022
MayflowerLOUISIANA72024
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS62024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA62018
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI62018
HughesARKANSAS52023
South BendARKANSAS52023
RamahLOUISIANA52024
Port AllenLOUISIANA52022
SaffellARKANSAS42019
Augusta 2ARKANSAS42009
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.