BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-46%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 75% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 75% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.610.001.4
20270.600.001.4
20280.580.001.4
20290.570.001.4
20300.560.001.3

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PocolaOKLAHOMA152016
Easton 2TEXAS142024
ChandlerTEXAS132002
AshdownARKANSAS92019
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA82018
Locust BayouARKANSAS72023
Coal HillARKANSAS72023
NanceARKANSAS72025
SandbluffOKLAHOMA71995
CaledoniaTEXAS62010
CrowsARKANSAS51991
WaldronARKANSAS51986
EastonLOUISIANA51990
Mer RougeLOUISIANA51984
FillmoreLOUISIANA51987
BlancoOKLAHOMA51997
McalesterOKLAHOMA51983
StarkARKANSAS42025
CanadianOKLAHOMA42009
Old MiloARKANSAS32009
BlakelyARKANSAS31999
PrincetonARKANSAS32001
DerryLOUISIANA31989
FishvilleLOUISIANA32014
HaughtonLOUISIANA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.