BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-37%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.60 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.60 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.001.4
20260.630.001.4
20270.620.001.4
20280.610.001.4
20290.600.001.4

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PocolaOKLAHOMA152016
Easton 2TEXAS142024
ChandlerTEXAS132002
StarkARKANSAS112023
AshdownARKANSAS92019
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA82018
Locust BayouARKANSAS72023
Coal HillARKANSAS72023
SandbluffOKLAHOMA71995
CaledoniaTEXAS62010
CrowsARKANSAS51991
WaldronARKANSAS51986
EastonLOUISIANA51990
Mer RougeLOUISIANA51984
FillmoreLOUISIANA51987
BlancoOKLAHOMA51997
McalesterOKLAHOMA51983
Poyen 2ARKANSAS42024
CanadianOKLAHOMA42009
Old MiloARKANSAS32009
HopeARKANSAS32023
BlakelyARKANSAS31999
PrincetonARKANSAS32001
DerryLOUISIANA31989
FishvilleLOUISIANA32014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.