BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+82%Since 1969
64Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 491% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±216.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+491%Change by 2029
3.3Projected 2029 index
0.00–8.195% range
±216.2%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.20.008.1
20263.20.008.1
20273.20.008.1
20283.30.008.1
20293.30.008.1

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oaks and Prairies.
LocoOKLAHOMA861985
DuranTEXAS421999
HenriettaTEXAS412005
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA302017
ChoctawOKLAHOMA292023
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA272009
CottonwoodTEXAS252006
KosseTEXAS212019
HobsonTEXAS202007
BeggsOKLAHOMA182022
GauseTEXAS171989
RhomeTEXAS172024
SchroederTEXAS121988
OakwoodTEXAS121987
College StnTEXAS121990
OsageTEXAS112003
SkiatookOKLAHOMA102002
Three RiversTEXAS102013
Mount ZionTEXAS101996
Gambill Ref.TEXAS102019
Thornton 2TEXAS82010
BrucevilleTEXAS82010
Lone OakTEXAS52003
HearneTEXAS52024
Peach CreekTEXAS41992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.