BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+82%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 491% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±216.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+491%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±216.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 491% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±216.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.20.008.1
20263.20.008.1
20273.20.008.1
20283.30.008.1
20293.30.008.1

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LocoOKLAHOMA861985
DuranTEXAS421999
HenriettaTEXAS412005
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA302017
ChoctawOKLAHOMA292023
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA272009
CottonwoodTEXAS252006
KosseTEXAS212019
HobsonTEXAS202007
BeggsOKLAHOMA182022
GauseTEXAS171989
RhomeTEXAS172024
SchroederTEXAS121988
OakwoodTEXAS121987
College StnTEXAS121990
OsageTEXAS112003
SkiatookOKLAHOMA102002
Three RiversTEXAS102013
Mount ZionTEXAS101996
Gambill Ref.TEXAS102019
Thornton 2TEXAS82010
BrucevilleTEXAS82010
Lone OakTEXAS52003
HearneTEXAS52024
Peach CreekTEXAS41992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.