BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oaks and Prairies has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-11%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 280% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±257.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+280%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±257.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 280% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±257.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.10.007.9
20273.10.007.9
20283.10.007.9
20293.10.007.9
20303.10.007.9

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LocoOKLAHOMA861985
DuranTEXAS421999
HenriettaTEXAS412005
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA302017
ChoctawOKLAHOMA292023
CottonwoodTEXAS252006
KosseTEXAS212019
HobsonTEXAS202007
RhomeTEXAS192025
BeggsOKLAHOMA182022
GauseTEXAS171989
SchroederTEXAS121988
OakwoodTEXAS121987
College StnTEXAS121990
OsageTEXAS112003
SkiatookOKLAHOMA102002
Mount ZionTEXAS101996
Thornton 2TEXAS82010
BrucevilleTEXAS82010
Lone OakTEXAS52003
Glen RoseTEXAS52025
Peach CreekTEXAS41992
MegargelTEXAS41994
ComancheTEXAS42025
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.