BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+144%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.72–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.72–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.72–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.713.5
20262.10.713.5
20272.10.723.5
20282.10.723.5
20292.10.723.5

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JetOKLAHOMA652024
CoatsKANSAS592024
BradyNEBRASKA452024
RotanTEXAS412024
ChildressTEXAS391994
SewardNEBRASKA352024
BookerTEXAS202010
ReedOKLAHOMA192017
WilliamsTEXAS162021
LoganKANSAS142019
LibertyNEBRASKA122001
HendleyNEBRASKA122023
CashionOKLAHOMA102023
WeinertTEXAS101981
AlbertKANSAS92018
HanoverKANSAS92021
Red CloudNEBRASKA82024
HolbrookNEBRASKA72024
AlmeriaNEBRASKA71987
RinggoldNEBRASKA72017
BerwynNEBRASKA72010
ClarendonTEXAS72012
JohnstownNEBRASKA62019
GordonNEBRASKA62018
Liberty 2NEBRASKA62004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.