BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-81%Since 1970
82Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-78%Change by 2029
0.10Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.9295% range
±35.4%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.150.000.97
20260.140.000.95
20270.130.000.94
20280.110.000.93
20290.100.000.92

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie.
BethuneCOLORADO202017
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO192011
Fort MorganCOLORADO182024
RuletonKANSAS112011
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO91995
PritchettCOLORADO82017
RatonNEW-MEXICO71994
PaxtonNEBRASKA52007
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO52024
WinonaKANSAS42012
AgateNEBRASKA42001
Murray LakeNEBRASKA42024
Agate 2NEBRASKA42024
ChanningTEXAS42006
DoughertyTEXAS42011
Wildhorse LCOLORADO32014
WallaceKANSAS32019
ClovisNEW-MEXICO32014
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA32012
LamesaTEXAS32023
StilesTEXAS32005
CheyenneWYOMING32003
BriggsdaleCOLORADO21993
AbarrCOLORADO22014
BoyeroCOLORADO22009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.