BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-81%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-78%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.97
20260.140.000.95
20270.130.000.94
20280.110.000.93
20290.100.000.92

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BethuneCOLORADO202017
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO192011
Fort MorganCOLORADO182024
RuletonKANSAS112011
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO91995
PritchettCOLORADO82017
RatonNEW-MEXICO71994
PaxtonNEBRASKA52007
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO52024
WinonaKANSAS42012
AgateNEBRASKA42001
Murray LakeNEBRASKA42024
Agate 2NEBRASKA42024
ChanningTEXAS42006
DoughertyTEXAS42011
Wildhorse LCOLORADO32014
WallaceKANSAS32019
ClovisNEW-MEXICO32014
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA32012
LamesaTEXAS32023
StilesTEXAS32005
CheyenneWYOMING32003
BriggsdaleCOLORADO21993
AbarrCOLORADO22014
BoyeroCOLORADO22009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.