BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Badlands and Prairies has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.78Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.790.001.9
20270.790.001.9
20280.790.001.9
20290.790.001.9
20300.780.001.9

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DwyerWYOMING1622017
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA452012
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA141994
St XavierMONTANA122010
ClarkelenWYOMING111977
HighlightWYOMING111982
SavageMONTANA81990
Winifred 2MONTANA82025
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA82002
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA82024
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA82025
ArvadaWYOMING82024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA72024
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA62025
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA62022
Cabin CreekMONTANA52023
RoyMONTANA41993
WebsterMONTANA41992
LindsayMONTANA42024
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA42025
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA42019
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA42006
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA42002
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
Soda WellWYOMING41982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.