BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Badlands and Prairies has increased: up 37% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+37%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±100.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.820.002.0
20260.820.002.0
20270.810.002.0
20280.810.002.0
20290.810.002.0

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DwyerWYOMING1622017
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA452012
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA212023
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA141994
St XavierMONTANA122010
ClarkelenWYOMING111977
HighlightWYOMING111982
SavageMONTANA81990
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA82002
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA82024
ArvadaWYOMING82024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA72024
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA62022
Cabin CreekMONTANA52023
RoyMONTANA41993
WebsterMONTANA41992
LindsayMONTANA42024
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA42019
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA42006
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA42002
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
Soda WellWYOMING41982
IngomarMONTANA31978
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA32023
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA31996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.