BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
164Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.85Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.900.002.6
20260.890.002.6
20270.880.002.6
20280.860.002.6
20290.850.002.5

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WaldenCOLORADO232018
HannaUTAH162024
CortezCOLORADO112008
Rifle FallsCOLORADO102021
RosevaleCOLORADO92023
AltonahUTAH92015
Rose WellsARIZONA81969
BufordCOLORADO72024
DoloresCOLORADO71987
AnimasCOLORADO62000
ShivwitzUTAH62024
MoabUTAH62024
AltonUTAH62019
EscalanteUTAH62023
Douglas PassCOLORADO52024
MoffatCOLORADO52003
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO51982
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO51998
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO52024
CanyonlandsUTAH52004
FerronUTAH52017
Wellington 3UTAH52019
HuntARIZONA41995
GreasewoodARIZONA41993
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO42023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.