BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-37%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
165Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 0.68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.82 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.82Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 0.68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.82 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.870.002.6
20270.860.002.5
20280.840.002.5
20290.830.002.5
20300.820.002.5

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rifle FallsCOLORADO222025
HannaUTAH162024
De BequeCOLORADO122025
CortezCOLORADO112008
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO102025
AltonahUTAH92015
Rose WellsARIZONA81969
AlamosaCOLORADO82025
DoloresCOLORADO71987
BufordCOLORADO62025
AnimasCOLORADO62000
ShivwitzUTAH62024
MoabUTAH62024
AltonUTAH62019
EscalanteUTAH62023
Douglas PassCOLORADO52024
MoffatCOLORADO52003
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO51982
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO51998
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO52024
BeaverUTAH52025
CanyonlandsUTAH52004
FerronUTAH52017
HuntARIZONA41995
GreasewoodARIZONA41993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.