BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.22–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.75Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.22–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.740.221.3
20270.740.221.3
20280.750.221.3
20290.750.221.3
20300.750.221.3

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShaftsburyVERMONT252004
Harris HillNEW-YORK112025
Cherry HillNEW-YORK101993
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK92025
HamburgNEW-YORK82024
Grand IsleVERMONT82010
WaylandOHIO62015
Herner CrnsOHIO62025
LucerneOHIO62024
BranchportNEW-YORK52024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK52024
North EastonNEW-YORK52025
ColchesterVERMONT52022
CatskillsNEW-YORK42000
West BangorNEW-YORK41999
MiddlefieldOHIO42013
BristolVERMONT42025
AusterlitzNEW-YORK32024
RomulusNEW-YORK31992
Alder CreekNEW-YORK32004
ArgyleNEW-YORK32006
PittsfieldOHIO32022
GarrettsvileOHIO31990
StrongsvilleOHIO31990
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.