BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-53%Since 1968
85Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±488%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029
0.18Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.5595% range
±488%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.210.000.58
20260.200.000.57
20270.200.000.56
20280.190.000.56
20290.180.000.55

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN182011
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN92022
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN92007
GilmanWISCONSIN92022
LudeMINNESOTA72015
Maple GroveMICHIGAN61996
BigforkMINNESOTA51996
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN42008
CathroMICHIGAN41995
Popple RiverWISCONSIN42022
CavourWISCONSIN42021
Bear LakeMICHIGAN32008
IronsMICHIGAN31985
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN32011
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN31986
Frederic 2MICHIGAN32008
Seney NwrMICHIGAN31992
Mille LacsMINNESOTA32018
Pine RiverMINNESOTA32024
ChaffeyWISCONSIN32015
Grand ViewWISCONSIN31986
CouderayWISCONSIN32016
WausaukeeWISCONSIN32016
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN32016
Ned LakeMICHIGAN21988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.