BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Northern Rockies has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+17%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
178Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 94% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.2–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+94%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 94% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.2–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.14.9
20263.01.24.9
20273.01.24.9
20283.11.24.9
20293.11.24.9

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NaplesIDAHO732024
SweetwaterWYOMING572008
BasinWYOMING301987
GoldenIDAHO262016
LaurierWASHINGTON222022
AlbeeOREGON191975
ArmintoWYOMING172004
Browns ParkCOLORADO152024
WoodruffUTAH152024
Seedskadee 2WYOMING152024
St MaryMONTANA121982
Saleratus CrUTAH122013
AugustaMONTANA112024
Thompson RivMONTANA102008
LimaMONTANA102024
Libby DamMONTANA92024
MckinnonWYOMING91980
CarterWYOMING92016
FontenelleWYOMING82024
MoranWYOMING82016
Pablo Res.MONTANA72024
OchocoOREGON71982
Nezperce NfIDAHO61999
Clyde ParkMONTANA62024
Hebgen LakeMONTANA62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.