BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Great Basin has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-77%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has collapsed in Great Basin: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Great Basin is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±287.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±287.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Great Basin is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±287.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.004.7
20260.000.004.7
20270.000.004.7
20280.000.004.7
20290.000.004.7

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OrdnanceOREGON401972
Twin ButtesIDAHO301999
Catlow RimOREGON202005
EwanWASHINGTON201995
Bear RiverUTAH172023
Rye PatchNEVADA141973
Bald Mtn.NEVADA132024
BlitzenOREGON121981
Fish LakeOREGON102024
Blacks CreekIDAHO81986
Modoc PointOREGON81972
HarringtonWASHINGTON81984
PromontoryUTAH72006
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA62017
Barnes ValOREGON61974
Honey LakeCALIFORNIA52017
GardnervilleNEVADA52005
Gold HillUTAH52018
DorrisCALIFORNIA42019
Cedar HillIDAHO42015
ZumwaltOREGON42005
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA32014
MacdoelCALIFORNIA32019
Kyle CanyonIDAHO31999
Sand PassNEVADA32001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.