BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Coastal California has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-77%Since 1970
30Routes In Region
36Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Northern Pintail has collapsed in Coastal California: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1219.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2022
0.00Projected 2022 index
0.00–1.795% range
±1219.3%Backtest error
19682022
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20180.000.001.7
20190.000.001.7
20200.000.001.7
20210.000.001.7
20220.000.001.7

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Coastal California.
Ora LomaCALIFORNIA791983
ShafterCALIFORNIA391978
Carrizo PlnCALIFORNIA101978
PenningtonCALIFORNIA91981
CaruthersCALIFORNIA91973
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA61974
AthloneCALIFORNIA61979
OrlandCALIFORNIA52007
AtwaterCALIFORNIA41990
CollegevilleCALIFORNIA31985
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA31968
Big BearCALIFORNIA31986
OilfieldsCALIFORNIA21975
MorenoCALIFORNIA21984
FairfaxCALIFORNIA21988
Cp. PendletonCALIFORNIA21974
ArvinCALIFORNIA21996
GlennCALIFORNIA22005
WestleyCALIFORNIA21978
TranquillityCALIFORNIA21986
LockwoodCALIFORNIA21974
TiptonCALIFORNIA21979
Red BluffCALIFORNIA11972
RiovistaCALIFORNIA11973
HughsonCALIFORNIA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.