BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Coastal California has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-77%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has collapsed in Coastal California: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern Pintail In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1219.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2022TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2022 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1219.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1219.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682022
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20180.000.001.7
20190.000.001.7
20200.000.001.7
20210.000.001.7
20220.000.001.7

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ora LomaCALIFORNIA791983
ShafterCALIFORNIA391978
Carrizo PlnCALIFORNIA101978
PenningtonCALIFORNIA91981
CaruthersCALIFORNIA91973
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA61974
AthloneCALIFORNIA61979
OrlandCALIFORNIA52007
AtwaterCALIFORNIA41990
CollegevilleCALIFORNIA31985
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA31968
Big BearCALIFORNIA31986
OilfieldsCALIFORNIA21975
MorenoCALIFORNIA21984
FairfaxCALIFORNIA21988
Cp. PendletonCALIFORNIA21974
ArvinCALIFORNIA21996
GlennCALIFORNIA22005
WestleyCALIFORNIA21978
TranquillityCALIFORNIA21986
LockwoodCALIFORNIA21974
TiptonCALIFORNIA21979
Red BluffCALIFORNIA11972
RiovistaCALIFORNIA11973
HughsonCALIFORNIA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.