Species · BCR 3 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern Pintail In BCR 3
Northern Pintail in BCR 3 has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1995.
17×Since 1995
4Routes In Region
19Years
Notable Signals
long arc increasecomputed index
Northern Pintail has surged in BCR 3: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1995.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in BCR 3 is projected to rise about 13× by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 0.00–59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
13×Change by 2029
23Projected 2029 index
0.00–5995% range
±90.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20 | 0.00 | 56 |
| 2026 | 21 | 0.00 | 57 |
| 2027 | 21 | 0.00 | 57 |
| 2028 | 22 | 0.00 | 58 |
| 2029 | 23 | 0.00 | 59 |
Routes In BCR 3
| Utqiagvik | ALASKA | 176 | 2023 |
| Happy Valley | ALASKA | 6 | 2024 |
| Red Dog | ALASKA | 2 | 1998 |
| Galbraith L. | ALASKA | 1 | 2024 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.