BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pintail in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Northern Pintail In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±249.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2021TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2021 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±249.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±249.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662021
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20170.000.000.07
20180.000.000.07
20190.000.000.07
20200.000.000.07
20210.000.000.07

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AshbyMINNESOTA42016
OsseoMINNESOTA21974
KnappMINNESOTA22009
EdwardsMINNESOTA21973
LoraineWISCONSIN21976
CascoWISCONSIN21996
Rolling PrWISCONSIN21980
EdenWISCONSIN21966
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN22002
EllisINDIANA11969
DeckervilleMICHIGAN11997
New LondonMINNESOTA12010
BismarkOHIO11977
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN11989
ManawaWISCONSIN11981
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN11992
OmroWISCONSIN11984
ManitowocWISCONSIN11974
Beaver DamWISCONSIN11978
ParisWISCONSIN11978

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.