BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Waterfowl

Northern Pintail in BCR 2 has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+33%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pintail in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Northern Pintail In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 6.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.4 (95% range 0.00–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±291.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±291.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 6.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.4 (95% range 0.00–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±291.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.90.0025
20269.00.0025
20279.10.0025
20289.30.0025
20299.40.0025

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Northern Pintail in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cape NomeALASKA262024
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA261994
Cold BayALASKA102024
CouncilALASKA72024
Goodnews BayALASKA71999
KotzebueALASKA62024
ChiniakALASKA52024
Kanektok RivALASKA52001
Salmon LakeALASKA42019
Gweek RiverALASKA42002
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA31991
KodiakALASKA21984
King SalmonALASKA22024
Kodiak 2ALASKA22018
NomeALASKA22023
St. Mary'SALASKA12014
Dillingham (Short)ALASKA11984
Selawik (Short)ALASKA11987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.