BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±138.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.80
20250.000.000.80
20260.000.000.80
20270.000.000.80
20280.000.000.80

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CovertKANSAS181998
BeaverOKLAHOMA171993
KearneyNEBRASKA131973
AlbertKANSAS102019
BassettNEBRASKA102019
LeovilleKANSAS91977
HamptonNEBRASKA42019
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA41998
BookerTEXAS41987
TableNEBRASKA32016
GordonNEBRASKA32018
HaysKANSAS21973
LoganKANSAS21990
MisslerKANSAS22007
SurpriseNEBRASKA21992
Swan LakeNEBRASKA22021
JohnstownNEBRASKA21993
KennedyNEBRASKA22023
MullenNEBRASKA22016
NenzelNEBRASKA22019
St JohnKANSAS12015
ColdwaterKANSAS12015
HopewellKANSAS12008
KenesawNEBRASKA11973
Piester LakeNEBRASKA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.