Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern Pintail In Badlands and Prairies
Northern Pintail in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
-63%Since 1969
93Routes In Region
57Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Northern Pintail has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-30%Change by 2029
0.37Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.795% range
±57.8%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
| 2026 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
| 2027 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
| 2028 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
| 2029 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 1.7 |
Routes In Badlands and Prairies
| Shawmut | MONTANA | 25 | 2019 |
| Cedar Creek | NORTH-DAKOTA | 18 | 2022 |
| Cottonwood | SOUTH-DAKOTA | 15 | 2023 |
| Circle | MONTANA | 11 | 2019 |
| Bill | WYOMING | 10 | 2000 |
| Laplant | SOUTH-DAKOTA | 8 | 2011 |
| White River | SOUTH-DAKOTA | 8 | 1997 |
| Lark | NORTH-DAKOTA | 7 | 1982 |
| Winner | SOUTH-DAKOTA | 7 | 2019 |
| Isabel | SOUTH-DAKOTA | 7 | 2015 |
| Natrona | WYOMING | 7 | 1992 |
| Jordan | MONTANA | 6 | 2024 |
| Bowman | NORTH-DAKOTA | 6 | 2024 |
| Owanka | SOUTH-DAKOTA | 5 | 2014 |
| Ottumwa | SOUTH-DAKOTA | 5 | 2019 |
| Wyarno | WYOMING | 5 | 2019 |
| Highlight | WYOMING | 5 | 2007 |
| Dickinson | NORTH-DAKOTA | 4 | 2022 |
| Roosevelt Pk | NORTH-DAKOTA | 4 | 1986 |
| Glen Ullin | NORTH-DAKOTA | 4 | 2022 |
| Chamberlain | SOUTH-DAKOTA | 4 | 2011 |
| Dayton | WYOMING | 4 | 2008 |
| Flatwillow | MONTANA | 3 | 2003 |
| Ingomar | MONTANA | 3 | 2023 |
| Albion | MONTANA | 3 | 1997 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.