BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-63%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Pintail In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.001.7
20260.420.001.7
20270.400.001.7
20280.390.001.7
20290.370.001.7

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShawmutMONTANA252019
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA182022
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA152023
CircleMONTANA112019
BillWYOMING102000
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA82011
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA81997
LarkNORTH-DAKOTA71982
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA72019
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA72015
NatronaWYOMING71992
JordanMONTANA62024
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA62024
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA52014
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA52019
WyarnoWYOMING52019
HighlightWYOMING52007
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA42022
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA41986
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA42022
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA42011
DaytonWYOMING42008
FlatwillowMONTANA32003
IngomarMONTANA32023
AlbionMONTANA31997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.