BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-94%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Northern Pintail In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±203%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±203%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±203%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.23
20260.000.000.23
20270.000.000.23
20280.000.000.23
20290.000.000.23

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WaldenCOLORADO122001
Moon LakeUTAH91995
VernalUTAH62012
MoffatCOLORADO41995
AlamosaCOLORADO42018
Main CanyonUTAH41988
San LuisCOLORADO31996
Skyline DrivUTAH31990
Hill CreekUTAH31994
ColonaCOLORADO22008
TarryallCOLORADO21995
MoscaCOLORADO21993
DinosaurCOLORADO22024
Navajo LakeUTAH22008
ClevelandUTAH22016
Wellington 2UTAH22011
HarmonyCOLORADO11979
Willow PeakCOLORADO12017
DoylevilleCOLORADO11995
GuffeyCOLORADO12017
TincupCOLORADO12007
Mcphee Res.COLORADO12005
AltonahUTAH11980
BeaverUTAH11973
JensenUTAH12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.