BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Pintail In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Northern Rockies has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-17%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Pintail in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±483.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±483.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±483.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.46
20260.130.000.45
20270.120.000.45
20280.120.000.45
20290.120.000.44

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PathfinderWYOMING112006
Elk HornWYOMING81990
Saleratus CrUTAH62018
ArmintoWYOMING61987
Rock RiverWYOMING62022
AnchorWYOMING52016
Fiddler LkWYOMING51980
NaplesIDAHO42021
BeaverheadMONTANA42017
FontenelleWYOMING42022
Crazy WomanWYOMING42000
Green RiverWYOMING41981
SeedskadeeWYOMING42015
Neponset ResUTAH32017
Carter 2WYOMING32022
Great DivideCOLORADO21984
LayCOLORADO22019
Crane CreekIDAHO22008
KalispellMONTANA21992
St MaryMONTANA21994
PolsonMONTANA21997
AugustaMONTANA22018
Pablo Res.MONTANA22024
Painted RockMONTANA21997
Clover CreekOREGON21994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.