BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Pintail In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWaterfowl

Northern Pintail in Northern Rockies has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-76%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Pintail has collapsed in Northern Rockies: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Northern Pintail In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±597.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±597.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Pintail in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±597.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.000.44
20270.110.000.44
20280.110.000.44
20290.110.000.43
20300.100.000.43

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Northern Pintail in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elk HornWYOMING81990
Saleratus CrUTAH62018
ArmintoWYOMING61987
Rock RiverWYOMING62022
AnchorWYOMING52016
Fiddler LkWYOMING51980
NaplesIDAHO42021
BeaverheadMONTANA42017
FontenelleWYOMING42022
Crazy WomanWYOMING42000
Green RiverWYOMING41981
SeedskadeeWYOMING42015
Neponset ResUTAH32017
Carter 2WYOMING32022
Great DivideCOLORADO21984
LayCOLORADO22019
Crane CreekIDAHO22008
KalispellMONTANA21992
St MaryMONTANA21994
PolsonMONTANA21997
AugustaMONTANA22018
Pablo Res.MONTANA22024
Painted RockMONTANA21997
Clover CreekOREGON21994
E. Bear LakeUTAH22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.