BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Hawk Owl In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Generalists

Northern Hawk Owl in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-60%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Hawk Owl has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Northern Hawk Owl In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Hawk Owl in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±141.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Hawk Owl in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.17
20260.070.000.17
20270.070.000.17
20280.070.000.17
20290.070.000.17

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Northern Hawk Owl in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SavageALASKA32018
CircleALASKA22021
MaclarenALASKA21997
Caribou Mtn.ALASKA22001
Kanuti LakeALASKA22021
Birch LakeALASKA12001
Tower BluffsALASKA12014
CantwellALASKA12000
L SalchaALASKA11982
Kenny LakeALASKA11998
Bear CreekALASKA11991
ChickenALASKA12024
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA12005
Lake LouiseALASKA12000
Nicholai SlALASKA12016
PetersvilleALASKA11996
ColdfootALASKA12023
Hather CreekALASKA12019
Kanuti CanynALASKA12008
Manley Ht SpALASKA12014
Moose CreekALASKA12015
Mt. FairplayALASKA12015
Mud RiverALASKA12024
RubyALASKA12021
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.