BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Hawk Owl Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Northern Hawk Owl in Alaska has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-76%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Hawk Owl Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Hawk Owl has collapsed in Alaska: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Northern Hawk Owl Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Hawk Owl in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±93.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Hawk Owl in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.11
20260.040.000.11
20270.040.000.11
20280.040.000.11
20290.040.000.10

Northern Hawk Owl Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Northern Hawk Owl in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Savage320181997
Circle220212006
Chiniak219851985
Maclaren219971996
Caribou Mtn.220012001
Kanuti Lake220212012
Birch Lake120012001
Nabesna Road119921992
Tower Bluffs120142014
Cantwell120001982
Chena Hot Spring 2120052005
Coldfoot120232000
Council120002000
Hather Creek120192016
Nicholai Sl120162000
Kanuti Canyn120081999
Manley Ht Sp120142014
Moose Creek120152015
Mt. Fairplay120151996
Mud River120242009
Ruby120212012
L Salcha119821982
Ft. Richrdsn120012001
Togiak River119941994
Kenny Lake119981998

Northern Hawk Owl Population Trend in Other States

minnesota

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.