BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Harrier In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Northern Harrier in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+49%Since 1975
19Routes In Region
48Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Northern Harrier in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Harrier in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029
0.10Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.2595% range
±68.9%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.100.000.25
20260.100.000.25
20270.100.000.25
20280.100.000.25
20290.100.000.25

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Northern Harrier in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
CoolidgeARIZONA31981
BrawleyCALIFORNIA32009
Ash MeadowsNEVADA32024
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA21997
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA22021
LenwoodCALIFORNIA21995
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA22000
VicksburgARIZONA11987
Cactus ForestARIZONA12012
Calif CityCALIFORNIA11980
GlamisCALIFORNIA11968
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA11987
Eureka ValCALIFORNIA12016
NilandCALIFORNIA12023
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA12018
Lone PineCALIFORNIA12024
Death ValleyCALIFORNIA11985
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA11984
BeattyNEVADA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.