BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Harrier In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Northern Harrier in Central Hardwoods has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-22%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Harrier in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Harrier in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Harrier in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.03
20260.010.000.03
20270.010.000.03
20280.010.000.03
20290.010.000.03

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Northern Harrier in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EastviewKENTUCKY32008
CentervilleMISSOURI21998
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS12021
BrownvilleILLINOIS11998
PimentoINDIANA11998
BrazilINDIANA12015
WashingtonINDIANA11987
MillersburgINDIANA12005
Indian SpgsINDIANA11997
EvansvilleINDIANA12002
NewberryINDIANA12019
CyprssINDIANA12005
GatewoodKENTUCKY12019
Buena VistaKENTUCKY12010
Bays ForkKENTUCKY12001
CascadeMISSOURI11967
ReedsMISSOURI12004
Cole CampMISSOURI11973
BlandMISSOURI12000
SedaliaMISSOURI12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.