BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Harrier In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Northern Harrier in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-76%Since 1969
109Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Northern Harrier has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Harrier in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029
0.23Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.7395% range
±32.9%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.260.000.76
20260.250.000.76
20270.240.000.75
20280.230.000.74
20290.230.000.73

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Harrier in Shortgrass Prairie.
PlainsTEXAS101993
Adams Co.COLORADO52021
Agate 2NEBRASKA42024
GruverTEXAS42016
BriggsdaleCOLORADO32021
GilpinCOLORADO32011
WaverlyCOLORADO32019
CheyenneCOLORADO32018
Last Chance 2COLORADO32024
Prospect ValCOLORADO32000
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO32022
PaxtonNEBRASKA32016
KimballNEBRASKA32021
MarslandNEBRASKA32021
PinneoCOLORADO22018
AbarrCOLORADO21999
Two ButtesCOLORADO22009
Wildhorse LCOLORADO22024
Gordon CreekCOLORADO22022
KirkCOLORADO22023
NinaviewCOLORADO22004
TimpasCOLORADO22006
WallaceKANSAS22017
RuletonKANSAS22014
PlymellKANSAS22011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.