BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Tamaulipan Brushlands has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+7%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 0.41–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 0.41–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025221.442
2026211.142
2027210.9042
2028210.6641
2029210.4141

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Agua NuevaTEXAS1062023
RachalTEXAS802023
El SauzTEXAS492023
Millett 2TEXAS492024
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS492023
MillettTEXAS482012
DilleyTEXAS472024
HondoTEXAS432024
Catarina 3TEXAS422024
RandadoTEXAS342024
La PryorTEXAS302017
Mirando CityTEXAS292024
Encinal 2TEXAS272024
GuerraTEXAS252023
George WestTEXAS242024
CatarinaTEXAS232010
SejitaTEXAS232024
LaredoTEXAS212023
KingsvilleTEXAS172024
EncinalTEXAS122010
San YgnacioTEXAS101985
El IndioTEXAS92007
Catarina 2TEXAS92017
RaymondvilleTEXAS82024
Pedro CreekTEXAS52010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.