BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Tamaulipan Brushlands has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+14%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 1.1–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 1.1–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026222.043
2027221.843
2028221.642
2029221.342
2030221.142

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Agua NuevaTEXAS1062023
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS612025
HondoTEXAS562025
El SauzTEXAS492023
GuerraTEXAS492025
Millett 2TEXAS492024
MillettTEXAS482012
Mirando CityTEXAS442025
George WestTEXAS442025
Catarina 3TEXAS382025
Encinal 2TEXAS342025
La PryorTEXAS302017
DilleyTEXAS302025
CatarinaTEXAS232010
SejitaTEXAS232024
LaredoTEXAS212023
RandadoTEXAS182025
KingsvilleTEXAS172024
EncinalTEXAS122010
San YgnacioTEXAS101985
RaymondvilleTEXAS102025
El IndioTEXAS92007
Catarina 2TEXAS92017
RachalTEXAS52025
Pedro CreekTEXAS52010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.