BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+24%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 107% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+107%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±117.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 107% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.670.001.4
20260.670.001.4
20270.680.001.4
20280.680.001.4
20290.690.001.4

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cutter 2ARIZONA102018
Red Rock 2ARIZONA92024
AjoARIZONA82001
PisinimoARIZONA81993
FlorenceARIZONA71988
Casa GrandeARIZONA52022
CoolidgeARIZONA41985
WickenburgARIZONA42023
New RiverARIZONA32016
Red RockARIZONA22011
Cactus ForestARIZONA22019
LukevilleARIZONA11981
Alamo Res.ARIZONA12023
Palo VerdeARIZONA12013
ArabyARIZONA11996
Cabeza PrietARIZONA12019
Ajo 2ARIZONA12019
Organ PipeARIZONA12023
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA12024
Bates WellARIZONA12022
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA11977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.