BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Piedmont has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
172Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has risen sharply in Piedmont: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 47 (95% range 42–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
42–5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 47 (95% range 42–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025454150
2026464151
2027464151
2028464151
2029474252

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WheatonMARYLAND1602024
EarltonMARYLAND1572024
OlneyMARYLAND1272024
MadonnaMARYLAND1202022
Little MtnSOUTH-CAROLINA981988
StockbridgeGEORGIA972023
EmmitsburgMARYLAND972024
AthensGEORGIA892024
WilgroveNORTH-CAROLINA892024
RutledgeGEORGIA862024
IjamsvilleMARYLAND842024
OakboroNORTH-CAROLINA812024
Liberty CityALABAMA802011
CandlerGEORGIA712024
DurhamNORTH-CAROLINA712024
WhitesburgGEORGIA692024
ClimaxNORTH-CAROLINA682024
Kite LakeGEORGIA672023
HebronGEORGIA672022
Mooresville 2NORTH-CAROLINA652024
Lincolnton 2GEORGIA612024
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA602024
TrymeVIRGINIA602024
ProsperitySOUTH-CAROLINA592024
Sunny SideGEORGIA572019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.