BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Southeastern Coastal Plain has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
346Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 50 (95% range 43–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
43–5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 50 (95% range 43–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026504356
2027504356
2028504357
2029504357
2030504357

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LovedaleFLORIDA1922011
New HopeFLORIDA1652011
Miller XrdsFLORIDA1502019
ShilohGEORGIA1502025
MiccosukeeFLORIDA1382025
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA1322022
PinettaFLORIDA1292025
CowardSOUTH-CAROLINA1202025
NewtonGEORGIA1162025
De SotoMISSISSIPPI1162019
BlountstownFLORIDA1062025
DickeyGEORGIA972018
Rock ChapelALABAMA962024
BettsFLORIDA962025
Broad BranchFLORIDA932025
OusleyGEORGIA922025
NewtonALABAMA912024
CastleberryALABAMA902025
AutaugavilleALABAMA872025
BaxleyGEORGIA872019
GrangeburgALABAMA862024
GeorgetownALABAMA862025
Latham 2ALABAMA862025
Gainestown FerryALABAMA862015
BickhamLOUISIANA862025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.