BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Southeastern Coastal Plain has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
346Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 49 (95% range 43–56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
43–5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 49 (95% range 43–56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025494256
2026494356
2027494356
2028494356
2029494356

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LovedaleFLORIDA1922011
PinettaFLORIDA1742024
New HopeFLORIDA1652011
Miller XrdsFLORIDA1502019
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA1322022
BettsFLORIDA1252024
NewtonGEORGIA1242024
MiccosukeeFLORIDA1212024
De SotoMISSISSIPPI1162019
BostonGEORGIA1152024
St FlorianALABAMA1092024
Broad BranchFLORIDA1052024
DickeyGEORGIA972018
Rock ChapelALABAMA962024
Dowling ParkFLORIDA942023
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA922024
NewtonALABAMA912024
BaxleyGEORGIA872019
GrangeburgALABAMA862024
Gainestown FerryALABAMA862015
WrightsvilleGEORGIA862024
ShilohGEORGIA862024
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA841991
OusleyGEORGIA832024
KinstonNORTH-CAROLINA832024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.