BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 62 (95% range 45–79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
45–7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 62 (95% range 45–79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026604377
2027614478
2028614478
2029614478
2030624579

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CarlisleLOUISIANA1191988
RamahLOUISIANA1052025
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA972025
RoselandLOUISIANA912025
Baton RougeLOUISIANA852025
ShawLOUISIANA832024
DundeeMISSISSIPPI822022
KeystoneLOUISIANA772013
KraemerLOUISIANA762025
BerwickLOUISIANA742018
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI731994
MaynardARKANSAS692025
TchulaMISSISSIPPI681975
River RoadLOUISIANA672025
FrogmoreLOUISIANA662025
Rayville 2LOUISIANA652025
South BendARKANSAS642025
BrousvilleLOUISIANA632025
MayflowerLOUISIANA622025
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI622025
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI592022
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI592025
GonzalesLOUISIANA582019
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI562018
BelairLOUISIANA552025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.