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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has edged up: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 62 (95% range 46–79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
46–7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 62 (95% range 46–79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025614478
2026614578
2027624578
2028624579
2029624679

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CarlisleLOUISIANA1191988
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA922024
KraemerLOUISIANA902024
Baton RougeLOUISIANA842024
ShawLOUISIANA832024
DundeeMISSISSIPPI822022
KeystoneLOUISIANA772013
RamahLOUISIANA772024
BerwickLOUISIANA742018
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI742024
MaynardARKANSAS732024
Rayville 2LOUISIANA732024
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI731994
BrousvilleLOUISIANA682024
TchulaMISSISSIPPI681975
MayflowerLOUISIANA672024
RoselandLOUISIANA662024
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI652024
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA612024
South BendARKANSAS602023
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI592022
GonzalesLOUISIANA582019
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI562018
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS542024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA542024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.