BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Northern Cardinal in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has increased: up 37% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+37%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 55 (95% range 43–67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
43–6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 55 (95% range 43–67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PhillipsOKLAHOMA1282025
DibollTEXAS1272025
EastonLOUISIANA1121990
SmyrnaTEXAS1012010
ChandlerTEXAS992004
LivingstonTEXAS962025
DerryLOUISIANA921989
Derry 2LOUISIANA912025
Easton 2TEXAS912025
Neches BithTEXAS902017
PocolaOKLAHOMA882016
AthensTEXAS872025
New WaverlyTEXAS842025
WechesTEXAS832025
MarionLOUISIANA821996
LockesburgARKANSAS792019
FredTEXAS772025
CaledoniaTEXAS762025
Mt. SelmanTEXAS762025
Pine PrairieLOUISIANA741997
BlancoOKLAHOMA732016
Bon WierTEXAS732025
Burr FerryLOUISIANA722025
Liberty HillTEXAS722025
Powell Park 2TEXAS722025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.