BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+23%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 54 (95% range 43–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
43–6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 54 (95% range 43–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025544266
2026544366
2027544366
2028544366
2029544366

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DibollTEXAS1872024
EastonLOUISIANA1121990
Mt. SelmanTEXAS1022024
SmyrnaTEXAS1012010
ChandlerTEXAS992004
CaledoniaTEXAS972024
AthensTEXAS972024
DerryLOUISIANA921989
New WaverlyTEXAS922024
WechesTEXAS902024
Neches BithTEXAS902017
LivingstonTEXAS892024
PocolaOKLAHOMA882016
MarionLOUISIANA821996
Derry 2LOUISIANA822024
Burr FerryLOUISIANA802024
Easton 2TEXAS802024
LockesburgARKANSAS792019
ClayLOUISIANA762024
Pine PrairieLOUISIANA741997
LongstreetLOUISIANA732024
BlancoOKLAHOMA732016
WomackLOUISIANA722024
IvanLOUISIANA712013
ZwolleLOUISIANA692023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.