BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 209% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+209%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 209% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 18–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 18–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201724
2027211724
2028211824
2029211824
2030211825

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BeloitWISCONSIN602025
VickeryOHIO492025
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA482025
LakevilleINDIANA462024
MottvilleMICHIGAN432025
TrempealeauWISCONSIN402025
ParisWISCONSIN402025
GalesburgMICHIGAN392025
Cherry ValILLINOIS382003
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN382025
St CharlesMICHIGAN372019
BismarkOHIO371995
N FreedomWISCONSIN372025
LawrenceMICHIGAN362025
HoltMICHIGAN362025
FowlervilleMICHIGAN362019
PrincetonWISCONSIN342024
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN332025
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN331987
New BuffaloMICHIGAN332014
BeldingMICHIGAN322003
HomerMICHIGAN322024
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA322025
GuilfordILLINOIS312023
AlmenaMICHIGAN312015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.