BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-71%Since 1969
24Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Northern Cardinal has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029
0.10Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.3495% range
±69.4%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.110.000.35
20260.110.000.35
20270.110.000.35
20280.100.000.34
20290.100.000.34

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Shortgrass Prairie.
MiamiTEXAS42024
PaxtonNEBRASKA32016
PostTEXAS32024
WinonaKANSAS22016
RankinTEXAS22023
LamesaTEXAS21975
CircleTEXAS22023
Frankel CityTEXAS22019
MidlandTEXAS22019
DoughertyTEXAS22022
Fort MorganCOLORADO12023
BenkelmanNEBRASKA12022
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO12000
LoganNEW-MEXICO12023
HardestyOKLAHOMA11982
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA12024
PlainsTEXAS12012
ChanningTEXAS12009
FloydadaTEXAS12024
StilesTEXAS12013
TenmileTEXAS12009
PanhandleTEXAS12010
SaragosaTEXAS12022
Kermit 2TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.