BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.35
20260.110.000.35
20270.110.000.35
20280.100.000.34
20290.100.000.34

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MiamiTEXAS42024
PaxtonNEBRASKA32016
PostTEXAS32024
WinonaKANSAS22016
RankinTEXAS22023
LamesaTEXAS21975
CircleTEXAS22023
Frankel CityTEXAS22019
MidlandTEXAS22019
DoughertyTEXAS22022
Fort MorganCOLORADO12023
BenkelmanNEBRASKA12022
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO12000
LoganNEW-MEXICO12023
HardestyOKLAHOMA11982
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA12024
PlainsTEXAS12012
ChanningTEXAS12009
FloydadaTEXAS12024
StilesTEXAS12013
TenmileTEXAS12009
PanhandleTEXAS12010
SaragosaTEXAS12022
Kermit 2TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.