BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 46× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

46×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 46× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.8–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.8–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.12.55.7
20274.22.65.8
20284.32.75.8
20294.32.85.9
20304.42.86.0

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE242025
WestbrookMAINE232024
Turner 2MAINE222025
New HartfordCONNECTICUT202024
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS202016
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS202025
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE202025
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE202025
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS192025
FletcherVERMONT182025
RomeMAINE172024
W RutlandVERMONT172025
Bowdoin CtrMAINE162021
CornvilleMAINE142025
NewcastleMAINE122024
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS122025
HopkintonNEW-HAMPSHIRE122025
Gilmantn I WNEW-HAMPSHIRE122025
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE112025
KasoagNEW-YORK112025
S WallingfrdVERMONT112022
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE102025
LempsterNEW-HAMPSHIRE102025
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE102025
S HoriconNEW-YORK102018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.