BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 44× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

44×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 44× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.7–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.7–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.92.45.4
20264.02.55.4
20274.02.55.5
20284.12.65.6
20294.22.75.7

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WestbrookMAINE232024
Turner 2MAINE232024
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE232024
New HartfordCONNECTICUT202024
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS202016
RomeMAINE172024
CornvilleMAINE172024
Bowdoin CtrMAINE162021
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS162024
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE162024
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS152024
W RutlandVERMONT152024
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS132024
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE132024
NewcastleMAINE122024
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE122024
St JohnsburyVERMONT122024
HopkintonNEW-HAMPSHIRE112024
S WallingfrdVERMONT112022
SearsportMAINE102024
Gilmantn I WNEW-HAMPSHIRE102024
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE102024
S HoriconNEW-YORK102018
GaysvilleVERMONT102021
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS91994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.