BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 273% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+273%Since 1968
84Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Cardinal has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 273% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 28 (95% range 24–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029
28Projected 2029 index
24–3195% range
±3.3%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025262330
2026272330
2027272330
2028272431
2029282431

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
NaplesNEW-YORK582024
LucerneOHIO552024
GarrettsvileOHIO531991
North EastonNEW-YORK512024
HamburgNEW-YORK492024
HiramOHIO492021
OrleansNEW-YORK482024
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK482024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK482024
MacdougallNEW-YORK422024
PenfieldNEW-YORK392024
HighlandNEW-YORK382022
Herner CrnsOHIO362024
Valley CityOHIO352024
PittsfieldOHIO332024
HebronOHIO332024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK301995
CayugaNEW-YORK292024
TrumansburgNEW-YORK272024
Canadice LNEW-YORK272024
Cherry HillNEW-YORK272019
LattasburgOHIO272024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK262024
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA262024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK252023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.