BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 289% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+289%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 289% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 28 (95% range 24–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
24–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 28 (95% range 24–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026272330
2027272431
2028272431
2029282431
2030282432

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OrleansNEW-YORK792025
NaplesNEW-YORK672025
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK652025
LucerneOHIO572025
MacdougallNEW-YORK562025
GarrettsvileOHIO531991
PenfieldNEW-YORK462025
HamburgNEW-YORK452025
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA402025
Valley CityOHIO392025
HighlandNEW-YORK382022
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA372025
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK362025
HiramOHIO362025
Harris HillNEW-YORK352025
CayugaNEW-YORK342025
Canadice LNEW-YORK342025
CloverPENNSYLVANIA342025
E YoungstownNEW-YORK332025
PittsfieldOHIO332024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA332025
GhentNEW-YORK302025
Ballston LkNEW-YORK301995
North EastonNEW-YORK302025
Herner CrnsOHIO302025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.