BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 273% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+273%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 273% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 28 (95% range 24–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
24–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 28 (95% range 24–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025262330
2026272330
2027272330
2028272431
2029282431

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NaplesNEW-YORK582024
LucerneOHIO552024
GarrettsvileOHIO531991
North EastonNEW-YORK512024
HamburgNEW-YORK492024
HiramOHIO492021
OrleansNEW-YORK482024
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK482024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK482024
MacdougallNEW-YORK422024
PenfieldNEW-YORK392024
HighlandNEW-YORK382022
Herner CrnsOHIO362024
Valley CityOHIO352024
PittsfieldOHIO332024
HebronOHIO332024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK301995
CayugaNEW-YORK292024
TrumansburgNEW-YORK272024
Canadice LNEW-YORK272024
Cherry HillNEW-YORK272019
LattasburgOHIO272024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK262024
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA262024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK252023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.