BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

12×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.84–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.84–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.751.7
20271.20.781.7
20281.30.801.7
20291.30.821.8
20301.30.841.8

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MayfieldMICHIGAN242025
Washington IWISCONSIN232025
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN102025
Bear LakeMICHIGAN92025
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN82025
CunardMICHIGAN72021
Lake CityMICHIGAN72022
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN71996
HarriettaMICHIGAN72025
WausaukeeWISCONSIN72025
Cedar RunMICHIGAN61999
OberlinMICHIGAN52024
Frederic 2MICHIGAN52013
HerronMICHIGAN52016
ExelandWISCONSIN52025
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN42004
SkeelsMICHIGAN42015
GilmanWISCONSIN42025
IrmaWISCONSIN42025
PhillipsWISCONSIN32025
Rib LakeWISCONSIN32024
HollisterWISCONSIN32025
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN22025
Maple GroveMICHIGAN22025
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.