BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

11×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 0.80–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.80–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 0.80–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.711.6
20261.20.731.6
20271.20.751.6
20281.20.771.7
20291.20.801.7

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MayfieldMICHIGAN372022
Washington IWISCONSIN292024
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN92024
HarriettaMICHIGAN92024
CunardMICHIGAN72021
Bear LakeMICHIGAN72024
Lake CityMICHIGAN72022
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN71996
Cedar RunMICHIGAN61999
WausaukeeWISCONSIN62024
OberlinMICHIGAN52024
Frederic 2MICHIGAN52013
HerronMICHIGAN52016
GilmanWISCONSIN52023
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN42004
SkeelsMICHIGAN42015
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN32024
Rib LakeWISCONSIN32024
BashawWISCONSIN32024
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN32024
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN22023
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN22024
GilchristMICHIGAN22013
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN21997
IronsMICHIGAN21986

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.