BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Neotropic Cormorant In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Neotropic Cormorant in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+142%Since 1971
35Routes In Region
49Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Neotropic Cormorant has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Neotropic Cormorant in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 142% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+142%Change by 2029
9.3Projected 2029 index
0.00–2195% range
±105.5%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20258.90.0021
20269.00.0021
20279.10.0021
20289.20.0021
20299.30.0021

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Neotropic Cormorant in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA3112011
WoodlawnLOUISIANA482021
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA422008
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA372017
MauriceLOUISIANA322024
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS172023
CreoleLOUISIANA161980
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA162011
RichardLOUISIANA152024
EstherLOUISIANA132024
BaysideTEXAS122010
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA111982
Forked IslandLOUISIANA112024
Goliad PrairieTEXAS112016
Hinkles FerTEXAS92017
Bayside 2TEXAS92004
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS82024
KaplanLOUISIANA62023
WinnieTEXAS62017
Rock IslandTEXAS52021
StowellTEXAS32023
HackberryLOUISIANA22016
Vinton 2LOUISIANA22019
Lag AtascosaTEXAS22009
IndianolaTEXAS22009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.