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Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Neotropic Cormorant In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsWetland birds

Neotropic Cormorant in Tamaulipan Brushlands has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-50%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Neotropic Cormorant in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Neotropic Cormorant In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Neotropic Cormorant in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 130% by 2028 — from 0.29 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±156.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+130%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±156.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Neotropic Cormorant in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 130% by 2028 — from 0.29 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±156.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.680.002.1
20250.680.002.1
20260.680.002.1
20270.680.002.1
20280.680.002.1

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Neotropic Cormorant in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KingsvilleTEXAS432007
ProgresoTEXAS302009
RachalTEXAS162011
San YgnacioTEXAS151982
George WestTEXAS82015
Encinal 2TEXAS62022
HeidelbergTEXAS42023
EncinalTEXAS22006
Agua NuevaTEXAS12018
ZapataTEXAS11982
RaymondvilleTEXAS12023
Catarina 2TEXAS12011
MillettTEXAS12004
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.