BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Neotropic Cormorant In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWetland birds

Neotropic Cormorant in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 231% on the route-weighted index since 2004.

+231%Since 2004TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Neotropic Cormorant has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 231% on the route-weighted index since 2004.

Neotropic Cormorant In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Neotropic Cormorant in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±441.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+96%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.89Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±441.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Neotropic Cormorant in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±441.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19952029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.800.001.7
20260.820.001.7
20270.840.001.7
20280.870.001.8
20290.890.001.8

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Neotropic Cormorant in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RamahLOUISIANA82024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA72023
River RoadLOUISIANA72024
KeystoneLOUISIANA12013
ShawLOUISIANA12021
BerwickLOUISIANA12010
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.