BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Quail In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Mountain Quail in Great Basin has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-72%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Quail has fallen sharply in Great Basin: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Quail in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.31
20260.070.000.30
20270.070.000.30
20280.070.000.30
20290.070.000.30

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Mountain Quail in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NubieberCALIFORNIA112018
Mt HoodOREGON72022
BartleCALIFORNIA52018
PauninaOREGON52011
HackamoreCALIFORNIA42010
HawthorneNEVADA42001
Badger CreekOREGON42024
LikelyCALIFORNIA22019
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA22024
MacdoelCALIFORNIA22018
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA22007
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA22011
TionestaCALIFORNIA22018
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA22015
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA22021
Wizard FallsOREGON22016
IngallsCALIFORNIA11985
BodieCALIFORNIA12024
Davis CreekCALIFORNIA12024
MadelineCALIFORNIA12024
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA12010
Iron GateCALIFORNIA12019
ImnahaOREGON11986
LakeviewOREGON12023
TwispWASHINGTON11989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.