BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Quail In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Mountain Quail in Northern Pacific Rainforest has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-4%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Quail in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Quail in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 145% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+145%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Quail in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 145% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.4
20261.10.002.4
20271.00.002.3
20281.00.002.3
20291.00.002.3

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Mountain Quail in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA472022
LongvaleCALIFORNIA222023
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA221996
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA172016
Hazel CampOREGON142022
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA112012
ProspectOREGON102024
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA82017
MccloudCALIFORNIA72021
Secret ValOREGON72022
Martins FyCALIFORNIA62009
HullvilleCALIFORNIA52019
AlderpointCALIFORNIA52005
Ship Mtn.CALIFORNIA52016
NavarroCALIFORNIA42009
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA42019
GazelleCALIFORNIA42021
Days CreekOREGON42024
SelmaOREGON42023
Fish RockCALIFORNIA32008
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA32014
KorbelCALIFORNIA32021
French GulchCALIFORNIA32011
ShellrockOREGON32019
Emigrant LkOREGON31991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.