BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Quail In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Mountain Quail in Sierra Nevada has surged: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+85%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Quail has surged in Sierra Nevada: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Quail in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 84% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 2.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+84%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Quail in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 84% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 2.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.82.111
20266.82.111
20276.82.111
20286.82.111
20296.82.111

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Mountain Quail in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA292023
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA282018
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA202024
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA172024
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA151975
WestvilleCALIFORNIA142024
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA122019
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA111994
Forest HillCALIFORNIA92022
LumberyardCALIFORNIA82024
RivertonCALIFORNIA82023
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA82017
DardanelleCALIFORNIA72019
Forest Hill 2CALIFORNIA72005
ChilcootCALIFORNIA62023
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA42008
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA31989
Silver CityCALIFORNIA32011
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA32016
GeneseeCALIFORNIA32023
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA32024
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA32024
KernvilleCALIFORNIA32008
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA22024
SattleyCALIFORNIA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.