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Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Bluebird In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-67%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Bluebird has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Bluebird In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±122.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.020.000.14
20250.020.000.13
20260.020.000.13
20270.020.000.13
20280.010.000.13

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA122019
Elk LakeOREGON42018
YrekaCALIFORNIA21977
Days CreekOREGON21971
HullvilleCALIFORNIA12000
MccloudCALIFORNIA11983
DirigioCALIFORNIA11999
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA12010
ShellrockOREGON12014
Cool CampOREGON11998
UmpquaOREGON11976
Emigrant LkOREGON11983
Blue RiverOREGON11999
Warner Mtn.OREGON11999
Whiskey Spg.OREGON12004
Hurricane RgWASHINGTON12023
Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.