Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Mountain Bluebird In Chihuahuan Desert
Mountain Bluebird in Chihuahuan Desert has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1974.
-91%Since 1974
5Routes In Region
41Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Mountain Bluebird has collapsed in Chihuahuan Desert: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1974.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.07 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±189.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2027
0.00Projected 2027 index
0.00–0.8795% range
±189.3%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| 2024 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
Routes In Chihuahuan Desert
| Lake Valley | NEW-MEXICO | 4 | 1989 |
| Carrizozo | NEW-MEXICO | 2 | 2022 |
| Pinon | NEW-MEXICO | 2 | 2017 |
| Cloudcroft | NEW-MEXICO | 1 | 2005 |
| Capitan Mtn. | NEW-MEXICO | 1 | 2017 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.