BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Bluebird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-36%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Bluebird in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Mountain Bluebird In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±298.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±298.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±298.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.000.44
20260.200.000.44
20270.200.000.44
20280.200.000.44
20290.200.000.44

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NinaviewCOLORADO122017
ElbertCOLORADO92024
VillegreenCOLORADO72017
TrincheraCOLORADO32021
ChugwaterWYOMING32024
Kiowa 2COLORADO22024
Arsenal 2COLORADO22021
Agate 2NEBRASKA22018
LingleWYOMING21991
KiowaCOLORADO12018
Mica ButteCOLORADO11987
CampoCOLORADO12018
Cone MtnCOLORADO12024
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO12008
CrawfordNEBRASKA12024
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA12022
FarleyNEW-MEXICO12017
RosebudNEW-MEXICO12022
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO11993
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO12021
CheyenneWYOMING12017
Pine BluffWYOMING12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.