BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Bluebird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-55%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Bluebird has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Bluebird In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 140% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+140%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±124.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 140% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.000.43
20270.190.000.43
20280.190.000.43
20290.190.000.43
20300.190.000.43

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NinaviewCOLORADO122017
VillegreenCOLORADO72017
TrincheraCOLORADO32021
ChugwaterWYOMING32024
Kiowa 2COLORADO22025
ElbertCOLORADO22025
Arsenal 2COLORADO22021
Agate 2NEBRASKA22018
LingleWYOMING21991
KiowaCOLORADO12018
Mica ButteCOLORADO11987
CampoCOLORADO12018
Cone MtnCOLORADO12024
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO12008
CrawfordNEBRASKA12025
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA12022
FarleyNEW-MEXICO12025
RosebudNEW-MEXICO12022
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO11993
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO12021
CheyenneWYOMING12017
Pine BluffWYOMING12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.